Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.