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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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